The Recession Monitor

Is the U.S. economy headed towards a recession? Is it already in one? The interactive charts below display some of the most commonly referenced indicators related to recession forecasting. Select a segment of each chart to explore it in greater detail. Click “Read More” to view enlarged versions of each chart and to view a post about the indicator.

An inverted yield curve, indicated when 10-year and 3-month treasuries intersect, reliably predicts recessions.

Levels below 100 on the index suggests that consumers will be more likely to save rather than spend.

Levels below 100 on the index suggest more pessimism regarding future business performance.

Shifts in the index above or below 100 precede changes in the business cycle by about 6 to 9 months.

The interest rate at which banks lend to each other. Higher rates result in a decrease in the money supply.

Flagging sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks can be a sign that the economy may be cooling off.

Positive values indicate tighter-than-average financial conditions in money markets, debt markets and the banking system.

The Sahm rule says a recession starts when unemployment rises .5 percent or more relative to its 12-month low.

Smoothed recession probabilities are based on a statistical model that incorporates four variables.

Hamilton’s GDP-based recession index measures the probability that the U.S. was in a recession in a given quarter.

Total capacity utilization reflects the percentage of available resources corporations and factories are using to produce goods.

Rising unemployment accompanies economic downturns while falling unemployment signals a recession’s end.